[LCA2015-Chat] Weather - was Uni Halls facilities

Ewen McNeill lca at ewen.mcneill.gen.nz
Thu Jan 8 11:10:41 EST 2015

On 8/01/15 12:29, David Go wrote:
> Its very difficult to forcast the weather correctly for Auckland.
> Generally the 1-day forecast is accurate - but anything beyond 5 days is
> little more then a guess

It's difficult to forecast the weather accurately for _New Zealand_ -- 
relatively small islands amongst relatively large masses of ocean means 
the weather can "just appear".  Typically I consider same day/next day 
forecasts to be "better than random", and seasonal guides to be useful 
for averages.  But beyond that "anything could happen".  Rain forecast 
in, say, 3 days time could mean (a) it will rain in 3 days time, (b) it 
will rain tomorrow, (c) it will rain in 5 days time, or (d) it will not 
rain for two weeks, (e) one or more of the above, (f) something else.

Humidity in New Zealand, in general, tends to be higher than Places 
Adjacent to Large Deserts (eg, much of Australia), due to the lack of 
"dry breezes" taking the moisture out of the air.

I'd suggest packing:
- clothes for 20-30 C daytime/15-25C nighttime weather ("summer"),
- something at least drizzle proof if not rain proof,
- at least one warm thing for when it's more in the 10-20C than in the 
20-30C (or at least something wind proof)

Being summer it's _unlikely_ to get below 10C.  But it might get close, 
and feel like it's below 10C.  Being New Zealand, it's unlikely to get 
(much) above 30C.  If you feel the cold, bring more than one warm thing 
(I know I will be bringing layers of warmer things).  If you feel the 
heat, maybe adjust towards summer things but bring something "warmer" as 
contingency planning.

Expect that you might well need _all_ of that range of clothes 
("summer", "drizzle proof", "warm thing") in the one day.

For Australians, and others, who have been to Tasmania, think "Tasmania 
weather".  Auckland is probably a bit warmer than Tasmania at the last 
LCA in Tasmania, and a bit more humid, but "Tasmania" will be a closer 
mental model than say "Perth" or "Canberra".


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